Chart 2 of 2
What the committee pays for, in losses
898 team-seasons, 2014-2025 excluding 2020. Left of zero means ranked BETTER. Preseason rows compare against a team nobody ranked.
Starting the year No. 1 in the AP pollextrapolated from one linear term-1.59
Power league rather than the Group of Sixt -6.17-1.09
Blue blood rather than a nobody95% CI -1.44 to -0.64-1.04
Starting the year No. 10extrapolated from the same term-0.85
One win over a top-25 teamt -11.74-0.69
Starting it No. 25worse than going unranked+0.38
SEC or Big Ten rather than ACC or Big 12t -0.97-0.13
A harder schedule, once wins are countedt +0.31+0.01
Grey bars are terms whose 95% interval contains zero.
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From Texas Tech finishes ahead of Texas and misses the playoff behind them
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