Chart 2 of 7
Every way the game could go
1%-38
2%-32
5%-24
10%-18
15%-10
18%-4
18%+4
14%+10
10%+18
5%+24
2%+32
1%+38
0%+46
◄ Indiana winsOhio State wins ►
Market: Ohio State −4Model: Indiana by 1 (52%)
40,000 simulated games from the drive-level engine. Each bar is the share of sims landing in that final-margin range. Taller toward Indiana = Indiana more likely.
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From Indiana vs Ohio State: a coin flip the model and the market read differently
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