Chart 2 of 4
Performance against what the talent gap predicted
Expected margin fit from roster talent across the eight games; 'over' is earned margin minus that.
Virginialess talented, earned +28.1+30.1
Stanfordearned +21.1+15.8
Memphisless talented, earned +9.1+10.0
North Carolinaearned +10.0+8.7
USCearned +18.7+7.0
Florida Stateexactly to form+0.4
TCUearned −10.0−8.7
UNLVmore talented, earned −9.1−10.0
Hawai'iearned −21.1−15.8
NC Statemore talented, earned −28.1−30.1
FBS matchups only — the two games against FCS opponents are excluded, since talent ratings do not compare across divisions.
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From Virginia was the best team in Week 0, and TCU was the luckiest loser
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