Chart 1 of 4
Earned margin vs actual margin
Earned margin comes from per-play EPA, converted to points (r = 0.918 with real margin over 18,920 team-games).
Hawai'ilost by 10, played like −21+11.1
Jacksonville Stlost by 26, played like −35+8.6
TCUlost by 5, played like −10+5.0
Florida Statewon by 17, played like +12+4.6
North Carolinawon by 5, played like +10−5.0
North Dakota Stwon by 26, played like +35−8.6
Stanfordwon by 10, played like +21−11.1
Positive = the scoreboard flattered them. Negative = they were better than the result.
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From Virginia was the best team in Week 0, and TCU was the luckiest loser
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