Chart 7 of 16
Inside the 10, fourth-and-5-or-less: what each choice returns
Expected points, from what actually happened in 1,180 such decisions.
Go for it56.2% convert x ~7 points · n=6073.93 pts
Kick92.8% make x 3 points · n=5732.78 pts
And failing to convert leaves the opponent pinned inside their own 10 — which the raw comparison does not even credit.
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From The fourth down nobody argues about
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