Chart 14 of 16
Going for it: how often it worked, by distance
Conversion rate on fourth downs where the model preferred a kick or a punt.
4th-and-1 or 2n=73566.9%
4th-and-3 to 5n=50850.8%
4th-and-6 to 10n=83342.0%
4th-and-11+n=38625.1%
The gambles fail often and loudly. That is why the profession learned from them.
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From The fourth down nobody argues about
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