Chart 11 of 16
Correlation between over-aggression and adjusted win rate
The same measurement, restricted to decisions the score cannot have caused.
All decisionsthe headline correlation−0.31
Within one scoreany quarter−0.12
First half onlyscore has not diverged−0.09
First half, one scorethe cleanest read−0.07
Once desperation is excluded, four-fifths of the effect disappears. The raw number was measuring which teams were behind.
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