Chart 10 of 16
Adjusted win rate by quartile of over-aggression
Win% after removing what the betting market expected of that team. 105 team-seasons.
Least aggressivewent −7.0% vs model · won 63.0%+7.6 pts
Third quartilewent +2.0% · won 50.9%+2.0 pts
Second quartilewent +7.5% · won 53.7%+0.1 pts
Most aggressivewent +15.6% · won 40.4%−9.9 pts
A 17.5-point spread, cleanly monotone. Correlation −0.31. It is also almost entirely an illusion.
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