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The residual is not zero-mean across the talent range

Mean talent-vs-results residual for each tenth of FBS, 1,434 team-seasons. A straight-line fit through a curved relationship hands the best rosters a head start.

1+0.95

2-0.35

3-0.18

4-0.41

5+0.06

6-0.21

7-0.55

8-0.94

9-0.73

10t = 4.60+2.29

Deciles 1-9 sit within a point of zero. The 10th is +2.29 (t = 4.60) — and Ohio State is in it every season.

GRIDPEX.COM

From Ohio State gets more out of its players than any team in college football. Alabama, which recruits better, doesn't.

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<p style="font:12px system-ui;color:#716a64">Chart: <a href="https://gridpex.com/c/against-equally-talented-rosters-ohio-state-beats-expectation-by-7-points-a-game-alabama-b/1">The residual is not zero-mean across the talent range</a> by <a href="https://gridpex.com">Gridpex</a></p>